Vick or Rodgers? Take Top Tier RB

You can’t go wrong with either guy, in Fantasy or NFL Football, heading into 2011, but you never know what’s gonna happen.   Normally, I’d pass on taking the first QB in a fantasy draft, so I can take a RB, esp late round 1/early rd 2, if most of the top tier RB’s are gone.  It’s a gamble, because there are no guarantees you’ll still get a top tier QB, but the dropoff from QB1 vs QB 3-5?, and RB 5-7, say, and RB 18-22.    I figure you can squeeze 65+ points over the course ofthe year by waiting on the QB, close to 4 Points Per Game.

(generic possible example:  Tom Brady was the third scoring QB3 @ around 300 Fantasy pts for the year, which 18.75 PPG and QB1 Vick finished around 315 Total, almost 20 PPG.   RB6 Charles 240, 15 ppg vs RB20 LY Frank Gore 160, 10 PPG.  Broken down another way, Brady 300/18.75 & Charles 240/15= 540/33.75, vs Vick 315/20 PPG & Frank Gore 160/10= 475/ 30 PPG, or +3.75 PPG, or 65 Total Points for the year.  If the RB isn’t a top tier guy, you get the top tier guy at either QB, or even consider WR1 or WR2 there.)

If I did have to choose, I’d go with Rodgers, although Vick might have a slight advantage in the schedule, or if your league gives extra points for rushing TD’s, and I’d love him on my team.  But the risk of injury, and the deeper WR talent are strong factors on Rodgers side. GB has also added talent to his Super Bowl arsenel at WR and OL, plus star TE returning from injury (at hopefully 100% for the season), they might get even better than last year.   Rodgers has also been an elite fantasy football player for 3 years, and Vick has had 1, so far.  If forced to choose, I’d have to go with the safer choice, especially when Rodgers could very well finish ahead of Vick this year in total points.

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